About No Crying in the Casino
We don’t buy lottery tickets. We hunt for the ones the market threw away.
“No Crying in the Casino” is a field guide to the inefficiencies of prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi, Betr).
Most people here are gambling—chasing hype, trusting the “wisdom of crowds” blindly, and overpaying for “sure things.”
We are here to do the opposite.
The Philosophy: Professional Losers
Our name comes from a simple rule: Tears come from bad math, not bad luck.
We follow the “convexity” playbook. We are professional losers.
We expect most of our “Tail Hunts” to expire worthless.
We budget for it.
But because we only bet when the odds are massively mispriced (e.g., paying 2¢ for a 10¢ probability), when we score, we score big.
We don’t need to be right often. We just need to be right when it matters.
The Arena (Why Now?)
We are standing at the edge of a new asset class. In 2025 alone, prediction market volume exploded to over $27 billion, with giants like Coinbase, Robinhood, and the NYSE entering the fray.
This is no longer just a crypto experiment; it is becoming the “Truth Layer” of the global economy.
“No Crying” is your ledger for this growth. Beyond the bets, we track the evolution of the space. We recap the most interesting trades, the new institutional players, and the structural shifts that are turning prediction markets from a niche toy into a trillion-dollar oracle.
What You Get
🦄 The Tail Hunt: Asymmetric bets where the market implies <5% probability, but the data says otherwise.
🚨 The Trap Door: Alerts on popular narratives that are actually negative-EV traps.
🐋 Whale Watch: Tracking the dark money flows on Polymarket to see what the insiders are really betting on.
🧪 The Lab: Post-game analysis of winning (and losing) trades to refine our edge.
The Operator
I’m KimchiQuant. I spent years on TradFi commodity desks hunting Black Swans, then took that volatility mindset to the trenches of crypto.
Now, I’m pointing that same rigor at prediction markets. I built a proprietary tech stack to track what the “Smart Money” is actually doing, distinct from the noise of the crowd.
