The Christmas Dinner Survival Guide (Market Edition)
The only betting guide you need to survive family arguments, weird uncles, and the holiday lull.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
We all know the drill. You are about to sit down for 48 hours of family festivities. At some point, likely between the main course and dessert, the conversation will lull, or worse, veer into politics.
You need a way out. You need a distraction.
What’s better than talking about prediction markets? Especially after you told your distant cousin last year that Bitcoin at $98k was a steal, and he has gone through the emotional rollercoaster of 2025... what could go wrong?
No mistakes this year. Instead of arguing about the past, why not bet on the immediate future? I’ve pulled the most interesting, bizarre, and conversational markets resolving in the next few days.
Here’s your chance to make an everlasting impression of absolute degeneracy at the Christmas table.
🎅 The “Family Friendly” Icebreakers
Safe for the kids, Grandma, and keeping the peace.
1. The Mariah Carey Index Is the Queen of Christmas losing her crown? The market is betting on whether “All I Want For Christmas Is You” will be the #1 song on Spotify on Christmas Day.
The Odds: 73% Yes
The Trade: 👉 Bet here
The Take: It’s a coin flip. If you have a Gen Z cousin blasting something else, you might want to short Mariah.
2. The Santa Audit Believe it or not, there is a market for this. “How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?”
The Odds: 94% for 8.2 - 8.3B gifts.
The Trade: 👉 Bet here
The Take: The market is efficiently pricing in Santa’s perfect logistics network and will resolve as reported by the NORAD Santa Tracker website. Wait, there is a way to track Santa?
🌶️ The “Political Grenade”
Drop this one after the second glass of wine if things are too quiet.
3. The Holiday Epstein Drop Did the most controversial files in history actually drop? The market is currently trading at 100% (Yes) but is stuck in a dispute review by UMA token holders.
The Odds: 100% Yes (Under Review)
The Trade: 👉 Bet here
The Take: It’s complicated. The DOJ released files on Friday, but they were heavily redacted, incomplete, and some files (including one referencing Trump) briefly “disappeared” before being reposted. The dispute is now over whether this botched, partial dump counts as a “release.” If you see your uncle checking Twitter frantically under the table, this is why.
4. The “Golden Visa” Bluff The market is betting 90% that Trump sells ZERO “Gold Cards” (residency visas) in 2025. But here is the alpha:
The Odds: 90% for ZERO vs. 5% for 1-100
The Trade: 👉 Bet here
The Take: Trump and Commerce officials have already bragged about “making billions” on this program. While the website isn’t live, buying the “1-100” outcome for pennies is a smart contrarian hedge. All it takes is for Trump to reveal he squeezed in one private buyer before New Year’s to print a massive return.
👽 The “Tinfoil Hat” Cousin
For the relative who spends too much time on Reddit.
5. Disclosure by New Year’s We have one week left in 2025. “Will the US confirm aliens exist?”
The Odds: 0% Yes
The Trade: 👉 Bet here
The Take: If disclosure happens, it’s happening now. But the market says we are alone in the universe... for at least another year.
6. The Flat Earth Hedge “Is Earth flat?”
The Odds: 0% Yes
The Trade: 👉 Bet here
The Take: With $300k+ in volume, there is surprisingly deep liquidity for “No.” If you need a guaranteed 1% return (picking up pennies in front of a steamroller), this is your trade.
💰 The “Finance Bro” Uncle
For the guy checking charts under the table.
7. The Bitcoin Million “Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?”
The Odds: 0% Yes
The Trade: 👉 Bet here
The Take: The dream is dead for 2025. A good reality check for the moon-boys at the table expecting a miracle candle before New Year’s Eve. If $1,000,000 is a bit optimistic, you can bet on $80,000 and $95,000 which are trading at 17% - 18%. Given the current downwards trend, you might want to bet with your uncle and take $75,000 which is currently trading at 4%.
8. The Golden Flippening “Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025?”
The Odds: 1% Yes
The Trade: 👉 Bet here
The Take: With only days left, Gold has won the year. A humbling stat for the crypto evangelists at the table. Here are some numbers to rub it in.
📉 Bitcoin YTD: -1.2% (Flat/Red)
📈 Gold YTD: +55.2% (The “Superstar” Asset of 2025)
The Bottom Line: Whether you are betting on Santa, Satoshi, or just betting on yourself to survive the holidays without an argument, I hope your portfolio stays green and your Christmas stays peaceful.
I’ll be back after the holidays with the Deep Dive 2026 Outlook.
Until then, eat well and trade safe.